A Look Back at the Top 2016 NBA Rookie Class Performances and Where They Are Now

I still remember the excitement surrounding the 2016 NBA draft class like it was yesterday. The buzz in Brooklyn's Barclays Center was electric, with analysts calling it one of the most promising groups in recent memory. Seven years later, looking back at the top 2016 NBA rookie class performances and where they are now feels like examining a time capsule of what could have been versus what actually transpired. That draft produced everything from superstars to role players to complete busts, and tracking their journeys reveals so much about player development in the modern NBA.

Ben Simmons went first overall to Philadelphia, and honestly, I thought he was going to revolutionize the game. A 6'10" point guard with LeBron-like vision? Sign me up. His rookie season got delayed due to injury, but when he finally debuted in 2017-18, he put up 15.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game - numbers that made him look like the second coming of Magic Johnson. Fast forward to today, and it's heartbreaking to see how his career has stagnated. The shooting never developed, the confidence seems shattered, and he's now on his third team in Brooklyn. I genuinely wonder if we'll ever see the version of Simmons that had us all so excited back in 2016.

Then there's Brandon Ingram, the second pick who just needed time to develop. I'll admit I had doubts about his slender frame holding up in the NBA, but watching him blossom in New Orleans has been a pleasure. He won Most Improved Player in 2020 and made his first All-Star team, averaging 23.8 points that season. His mid-range game is absolutely beautiful - probably the best in the league among players under 26. What fascinates me about Ingram's journey is how perfectly it demonstrates that some players just need the right situation and patience. The Lakers traded him away in the Anthony Davis deal, but that might have been the best thing that happened to his career.

Jaylen Brown went third to Boston, and I remember thinking he was a bit of a reach. Shows what I know. He's developed into arguably the best player from this class, making multiple All-Star teams and helping lead Boston to the Finals in 2022. His contract extension - 4 years, $106 million back in 2019 - seemed massive at the time, but now looks like a bargain given his production. What impresses me most is how he's continuously added elements to his game each offseason. The handle improved, the playmaking got better, and he's become a reliable three-point shooter at around 38% for his career.

The real steals of this draft came later. Malcolm Brogdon at 36th overall to Milwaukee became the oldest player ever to win Rookie of the Year at 24. Domantas Sabonis went 11th to Orlando before being traded to Oklahoma City - who would've thought he'd become a multiple-time All-Star while Victor Oladipo, the main piece in that Paul George trade, would struggle with injuries? And then there's Pascal Siakam, the 27th pick who developed into an All-NBA player and champion with Toronto. His story might be the most inspiring - from the Basketball Without Borders program to G League to NBA star.

Looking at these career trajectories reminds me of something Manny Pacquiao said about Floyd Mayweather: "Let's fight again if he wants. I have no problem with that." That mentality - always being ready for another challenge, another opportunity to prove yourself - separates the players who maximize their potential from those who plateau. The successful members of this draft class embody that fighter's spirit. They've adapted, evolved, and remained hungry through contract years, trades, and role changes.

The busts of this class tell their own cautionary tales. Dragan Bender at number four, Marquese Chriss at eight, Georgios Papagiannis at thirteen - these were players teams reached on based on potential rather than proven production. As someone who's followed draft analytics for years, I've become increasingly convinced that teams overthink these high-value picks. Sometimes the obvious choice is the right one, and sometimes taking a project player in the lottery sets your franchise back years.

What's particularly interesting is examining how team development systems impacted these players' careers. The Spurs' development of Dejounte Murray (29th pick) into an All-Star before trading him to Atlanta demonstrates how organizations can maximize late-first value. Meanwhile, the Suns' handling of their multiple top-10 picks from this class shows how organizational instability can hinder development. It's not just about drafting well - it's about creating environments where young players can flourish.

Seven years later, the 2016 class has produced two All-NBA players (Siakam, Sabonis), multiple All-Stars (Brown, Ingram, Simmons, Murray), and several high-level starters. About 60% of first-round picks from that class remain in the league today, which is actually slightly above average historically. The class might not have the transcendent superstar that some drafts produce, but its depth is genuinely impressive. As we evaluate current rookie classes, the 2016 group serves as an important reminder that player development isn't linear, and initial assessments often miss the bigger picture of how careers will unfold. The true test isn't where players start, but how they adapt and grow throughout their journeys.