Looking Back at the 2011 NBA Draft Class: Biggest Steals and Busts Revealed

Looking back at the 2011 NBA Draft class, I can't help but feel a mix of nostalgia and professional fascination. As someone who's spent years analyzing basketball talent pipelines, this particular draft stands out as one of the most fascinating case studies in recent NBA history. The way teams navigated that draft night reminds me of the complex player evaluation processes we see in international basketball - similar to what Philippine Basketball Federation president Al Panlilio described when discussing player qualifications, saying they were "checking the green passport" while managing FIBA documentation requirements. That same meticulous verification process happens in the NBA draft room, just with different parameters.

I remember watching that draft live, notebook in hand, and even then sensing there were going to be some massive surprises. Kyrie Irving going first overall was the safest pick Cleveland could make, but what followed was a rollercoaster of hits and misses that would reshape multiple franchises. The real story of this draft class isn't just about who went where, but about how scouting departments evaluated talent and how development systems either nurtured or failed these young players. Kawhi Leonard falling to pick 15 remains one of the biggest steals in modern draft history, and I've always felt Indiana's selection of Jimmer Fredette at 10 was destined to disappoint despite his college heroics.

What fascinates me most about analyzing this draft decade later is seeing how player development trajectories diverged so dramatically. Take Isaiah Thomas, the very last pick at number 60, who became a two-time All-Star and averaged 28.9 points per game in 2017. Meanwhile, Jan Vesely, picked sixth overall, lasted just three seasons in the NBA before returning to Europe. The margin between success and failure in the NBA is razor-thin, and the 2011 class demonstrates this better than almost any other. I've always believed that draft position creates certain expectations that can either motivate or crush young players, and we saw both extremes here.

The international players in this class particularly interest me from an evaluation perspective. Jonas Valančiūnas at five was a solid choice, but Donatas Motiejūnas at 20 never quite lived up to his potential despite showing flashes of brilliance. This reminds me of the complex international player assessment that Panlilio referenced - sometimes the paperwork and qualifications check out, but the translation of talent to the NBA court doesn't quite follow the expected path. I've seen countless international prospects struggle with the adjustment to NBA speed and physicality, and the 2011 class had several examples of this phenomenon.

When I discuss this draft with colleagues, we often debate which team had the best overall haul. Golden State's selection of Klay Thompson at 11 was franchise-altering, while Chicago's choice of Jimmy Butler at 30 was arguably the steal of the entire draft. Meanwhile, Minnesota selecting Derrick Williams second overall looks worse with each passing year. Personally, I think San Antonio's trade for Kawhi Leonard showcased the kind of visionary team-building that separates good franchises from great ones. They identified specific traits that fit their system rather than just taking the consensus best available player.

The busts from this class teach us valuable lessons about draft evaluation. Bismack Biyombo at seven was always going to be a project, but I never believed he'd develop the offensive game to justify that high selection. Same with Jimmer Fredette - incredible college scorer, but the concerns about his defense and athleticism translated exactly as feared. What's interesting is that some of these "busts" have carved out respectable careers overseas or in specialized roles, reminding us that draft disappointment doesn't always mean a player lacks talent entirely, just that they weren't the right fit for NBA expectations at that selection spot.

As I reflect on this draft class now, the biggest takeaway for me is how unpredictable player development can be. Nobody could have projected Jimmy Butler becoming a superstar when 29 teams passed on him. Meanwhile, highly-touted prospects like Enes Kanter never quite reached their projected ceilings. This uncertainty is why I always caution against immediate draft grades - the true evaluation comes years later when we see how these players actually develop. The 2011 class had an unusual number of players who either dramatically exceeded or fell short of expectations, making it particularly fascinating for analysts like myself.

What's stayed with me over the years is how this draft class impacted team-building philosophies across the league. The success stories like Leonard, Thompson, and Butler reinforced the value of wings who could defend multiple positions and shoot efficiently. The failures highlighted the risks of drafting for potential over proven skills. I've noticed teams became more cautious about international prospects after several from this class struggled, though the success of players like Valančiūnas provided important counterexamples. The legacy of this draft continues to influence how teams approach the annual selection process today.

In my professional opinion, the 2011 draft stands as a powerful reminder that talent evaluation requires both art and science. The analytics revolution was just gaining momentum back then, and we can see in retrospect how teams that balanced data with traditional scouting tended to fare better. The dramatic variance in outcomes between picks has made me more humble in my own projections, recognizing that even with all the film study, background checks, and statistical analysis, there remains an element of unpredictability in how young players will develop. That uncertainty is what keeps my job interesting year after year, and the 2011 class exemplifies this better than almost any other draft in recent memory.