Breaking Down the Odds for the 2017 NBA Championship Contenders

Looking back at the 2017 NBA championship race, I can't help but draw parallels to that incredible PBA match between TNT and San Miguel that still sticks in my mind. The way TNT built that massive 61-41 halftime lead only to barely survive San Miguel's furious fourth quarter comeback reminds me so much of how the 2017 NBA playoffs unfolded. That 99-96 final score could easily describe the razor-thin margins that separated contenders from pretenders during that memorable NBA season.

When I analyze championship contenders, I always look at how teams handle both dominance and adversity. The Warriors that year were essentially TNT in that first half - building what seemed like an insurmountable advantage. Golden State entered the playoffs with what I calculated as approximately 78% championship probability based on their historic regular season performance. They had that superteam swagger, having added Kevin Durant to what was already a 73-win core. But just like TNT discovered, big leads can evaporate quickly in championship basketball. What impressed me most about Golden State wasn't their offensive firepower - everyone could see that - but their defensive versatility. They could switch everything, protect the rim reasonably well, and generate turnovers that led to easy baskets. Still, I had my doubts about their mental toughness after blowing that 3-1 lead to Cleveland the previous year.

The Cavaliers, much like San Miguel in that PBA classic, played the role of the resilient comeback artists. LeBron James was absolutely phenomenal that season, and I remember thinking his basketball IQ had reached its peak. Cleveland's offense operated at what I estimated was about 115 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs - an astronomical figure that demonstrated their scoring prowess. Yet their defense concerned me. They ranked around 12th defensively during the regular season, and championship teams typically need top-10 defenses. What they had, similar to San Miguel's never-say-die attitude, was championship experience and the best player in the world. I've always believed that in playoff basketball, having the best player on the court matters more than any statistical advantage, and Cleveland certainly had that card to play.

Then there were the dark horses - teams like the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets. The Spurs won 61 games that season, yet I felt they were flying under the radar. Their net rating of around +8.5 points per 100 possessions was elite, but they lacked the offensive firepower to keep up with Golden State. What fascinated me about San Antonio was their systematic approach - they were the antithesis of Cleveland's star-driven model. Meanwhile, Houston's James Harden was putting up video game numbers in Mike D'Antoni's system. Their offense was revolutionary, generating what I calculated as 45% of their points from three-pointers or free throws - the perfect analytical approach. Still, I questioned whether their defense could hold up against elite competition.

The Celtics were another interesting case study. They secured the top seed in the East with 53 wins, but I never bought into them as true contenders. Their point differential suggested they were more of a 49-win team, and they lacked the secondary scoring needed to complement Isaiah Thomas. What they had going for them was Brad Stevens' brilliant coaching and incredible resilience - qualities that reminded me of how TNT managed to hold on against San Miguel's comeback attempt.

When the playoffs arrived, the patterns from that TNT-San Miguel game played out repeatedly. Golden State stormed through the Western Conference with a historic 16-1 record, looking every bit the dominant first-half team. But Cleveland struggled, needing seven games to get past Indiana and Boston. What struck me was how both teams faced moments where their championship credentials were tested, much like TNT surviving San Miguel's fourth-quarter surge.

The Finals themselves became basketball immortality. Golden State's 3-1 lead felt like TNT's 20-point halftime advantage - seemingly insurmountable. But what followed was perhaps the greatest comeback in NBA history. LeBron's block on Iguodala, Kyrie's game-winning three-pointer over Steph Curry - these moments exemplified the never-say-die spirit I'd seen in San Miguel's comeback attempt. Cleveland's defense, which had been mediocre all season, suddenly found another gear when it mattered most.

Reflecting on that season, I'm convinced that championship teams need both the ability to build commanding leads and the resilience to survive furious comebacks. The Warriors had the former in spades but ultimately faltered when faced with the latter. The Cavaliers, much like San Miguel in that PBA thriller, demonstrated the heart of champions even in defeat - though in Cleveland's case, they completed the comeback. If I had to pinpoint one lesson from both that NBA season and the TNT-San Miguel classic, it's that in basketball, no lead is truly safe, and championship mettle is revealed not when you're ahead, but when you're fighting to stay there. The true test of contenders isn't just how they build advantages, but how they respond when those advantages disappear.